What a special election in Mass. means to health reform

Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) predicts the fate of  health care reform hinges on Tuesday's special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy.  The polling blog Five Thirty Eight scores the race as a toss-up between Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. Political strategists say the situation isn't as dire as Frank claims.

Things are guaranteed to get interesting if Brown wins. Republicans would gain a 41^st vote against President Barack Obama's agenda, which allows them to perpetually filibuster any legislation as long as they stick together.  

The Democrats, however, do have options. Here's a summary of scenarios you can expect after Tuesday.

Brown wins:

1. Health reform in its current version is dead. Moderates in both houses view the special election vote as a referendum on health care reform and vow to vote against a trillion dollar reform bill - with the hope that their votes will help them keep their seats in 2010 and 2012 elections.
2. Congressional Democrats push ahead with a final health bill before the special election is certified and Mr. Brown heads to Washington. The gamesmanship would likely leave everyone with an upset stomach, further poisoning the political atmosphere in Washington.
3. Democrats attempt to pass the Senate's health bill in the House. This might be difficult because despite similarities, the House version does differ enough from the Senate bill (such as taxing premium or "Cadillac" health care plans) and House members may be reluctant to go along with it.
4. Democrats attempt to pass health reform under reconciliation, a procedural move that only requires a simple majority. The New York Times says a final health bill would need to be scaled back in order to pass.

Coakley wins:

1. Democrats can continue work as if nothing happened. They merge the House and Senate bills behind closed doors, attempt to build consensus within the party and pass a reform bill using the party's majorities.