States can expect an upsurge in Medicaid enrollment even if they aren’t participating in the
Medicaid expansion provision of health care reform legislation (Affordable Care Act, or ACA), a new study projects.
A prime reason for the increase is that the Medicaid-eligible population constitutes a substantial share of the uninsured population in some states, the study, published in the journal Health Affairs by University of Minnesota researchers concludes. Based on experience in Massachusetts under its 2006 health reforms the researchers found found that among low-income parents who were previously eligible for Medicaid there enrollment increased by 16.3 percentage points, and Medicaid participation by those without private coverage increased by 19.4 percentage points. The comparison is with four nearby states – Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island and New York.
In many states the potential size of the Medicaid “welcome-mat effect” will be even larger than it was in Massachusetts, the authors believe.
Currently, 19 state governors have rejected expansion of their Medicaid programs or are leaning that, even though the federal government would pay 100% of the cost initially and 90% thereafter. The resisting states include Texas, Georgia and Pennsylvania.